Was President Lyndon Johnson’s “war on poverty” the main driver of declining poverty rates after 1964?
Not according to a new study. The researchers examined a measure of poverty
that accounts for all taxes and government benefits … [and] anchored [the] poverty measure to the official poverty rate in 1963. … [They also] adjusted income thresholds for inflation and the size of each person’s household.
Using this measure, they found that
poverty fell substantially prior to the War on Poverty, primarily due to increases in market income, without a substantial rise in the dependency of working-age adults and their children on government transfers for most of their income. … These trends were particularly stark for black people, who experienced a steep decline in poverty before the War on Poverty.
Cross-posted from Substack