Travis Fisher and David M. Simon
Since the days of powdered wigs, so-called experts have predicted that economic growth would soon collide with hard physical limits. According to some intellectuals, the world has always been running out of food, oil, and just about everything that advances civilization.
The predictions change over time, but the unwavering belief is that improvements in living standards are not sustainable. Economist Thomas Malthus warned in 1798 that population growth would overwhelm food production, leading to widespread starvation. The 1970s brought “The Limits to Growth,” a report by the Club of Rome that predicted resource depletion would lead to “a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline.”
Later came peak oil, climate alarmism, and activism against hydraulic fracturing and data centers. Just like the centuries-old claims of limits to growth, these theories fall apart when we consider the historical record and account for human adaptation.
The late economist Julian Simon (David’s father and fellow at the Cato Institute) spent years arguing that human beings are not merely consumers of resources but also discoverers of scientific knowledge and innovative thinkers. Human ingenuity, Simon argued, is the ultimate resource—one that has no limit.
When Simon’s book The Ultimate Resource was published in 1981, people scoffed at his optimism. But he was right—the state of the world was improving and would continue to improve. Global poverty collapsed. Food production surged faster than population growth. Resource scarcity diminished. Human life expectancy rose dramatically. Even as industrial output expanded, the developed world became cleaner, wealthier, and safer.
The shale revolution shows how resourceful we can be. Not long ago, experts confidently argued that the US was running out of economically recoverable oil and natural gas. Then, entrepreneurs and engineers transformed global energy markets through hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Rather than continuing our slow decline in oil and natural gas production, the US now leads the world.
The important lesson is more philosophical than technical. The shale revolution was not centrally planned into existence. It emerged from decentralized experimentation, private investment, risk-taking, and a government that respects property rights and otherwise gets out of the way. In other words, it emerged from the exact kind of society Simon believed produced human progress.
Few public officials understand that lesson better than Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.
Long before entering government, Wright argued that abundant energy is the foundation of modern human flourishing. Clean cooking, refrigeration, transportation, clean water systems, modern medicine, industrial production, and computing power all depend on enormous amounts of energy.
The optimistic worldview shared by Simon and Wright has taken decades to reach the mainstream and influence policymakers. However, today, it looks like the future.
Billions of people around the world will need vastly more energy to achieve modern living standards. In the US, energy-intensive growth industries, such as the technology sector, are racing to expand infrastructure, strengthen electric grids, and secure reliable fuel supplies. The common denominator is the need for vast amounts of new energy, and the political mood is shifting toward optimism.
Consider two recent examples. The concept of “energy superabundance” would have sounded politically radioactive only a few years ago, but now it’s the title of a series of workshops held by governors from the American West that concluded last week. Likewise, the Operation Gigawatt Summit, hosted by Utah Governor Spencer Cox, featured prominent officials, including Wright and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.
The climate debate reflects this broader shift in perspective. Last year’s Department of Energy (DOE) report, commissioned by Secretary Wright, eviscerated many of the catastrophic climate claims that had dominated public discussion for years. The data tell the story: global warming has some negative consequences, but in the most important ways, and on net, it is beneficial. As humanity became wealthier, more technologically advanced, and more energy-abundant, natural disaster-related deaths plummeted worldwide. Human beings are increasingly resilient, safe, and in control of their own destiny.
Secretary Wright has put us on the path toward energy liberty, but the work is not done. We will know freedom is truly winning when Congress limits the size and scope of the federal government’s role in the energy sector. That would mean curtailing emergency authorities and taking the DOE budget to new lows (yes, zero should be on the table). For now, we are extremely lucky to have a freedom fighter at the DOE.
Secretary Wright wrote in the foreword of the DOE report, “misguided policies based on fear rather than facts could truly endanger human well-being.” Reforming these policies is imperative. But the great news is that, for the first time ever, doomslayers like Secretary Wright are guiding American energy policy. We think Julian Simon would have enthusiastically cheered Chris Wright, and we credit Simon with building the philosophical foundation for today’s energy abundance.
Travis Fisher is the Director of Energy and Environmental Policy Studies at the Cato Institute.
David M. Simon is a senior fellow with Unleash Prosperity, a lawyer in Chicago, and a writer at www.dmswritings.com.