Iran’s latest attacks on commercial shipping came just as the United States and Oman were beginning to steer more vessels through a new southern shipping corridor hugging Oman’s coastline — an alternative route designed to move traffic farther from Iran’s immediate reach.
Former U.S. military commanders and regional analysts told Fox News Digital the timing was no coincidence. They said Iran was trying to preserve one of its greatest strategic advantages as new shipping routes and regional infrastructure begin chipping away at Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
“The southern route creates a route they can’t toll or control,” retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery told Fox News Digital. “They felt it necessary to attack it.”
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For decades, Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has given it influence well beyond its borders. But that advantage is increasingly under pressure as Gulf states invest in pipelines that bypass Hormuz and the United States and Oman expand use of the southern corridor.
Nearly half of inbound commercial traffic through the strait is already using that route, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.
After Iran attacked vessels using the corridor, the U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian military targets tied to maritime operations. Iran retaliated in recent days with attacks on U.S. facilities and regional partners before Trump announced both sides had agreed to halt further strikes and return to negotiations in Doha.
Iran has denied that its negotiators would be meeting with U.S. officials in Qatar on Tuesday.
Former Navy Fifth Fleet commander, Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, said Iran’s objective isn’t necessarily to halt shipping altogether.
“The IRGC has been trying to make it commercially unworkable,” Donegan told Fox News Digital, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “These attacks on shipping to me aren’t random. They’re strategy.”
Rather than closing the strait outright, Donegan said, Iran only needs to keep insurance premiums high enough that commercial shipping companies remain reluctant to return.
“Their strategy is to enforce their control of the straits,” he said, by driving up insurance costs while continuing to “test the U.S. resolve.”
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The question now is whether Iran can translate that military pressure into lasting influence over the strait.
Under the memorandum of understanding negotiated after the ceasefire, Iran, Oman and the Gulf littoral states are expected to negotiate the strait’s “future administration and maritime services” while commercial traffic moves toll-free for 60 days.
President Donald Trump has insisted on social media that there will be “NO TOLLS” after the negotiating period expires, even though the memorandum itself does not explicitly guarantee that outcome. Asked about the discrepancy, Trump argued that “common sense” and the threat of renewed U.S. military action would keep Iran from interfering with commercial traffic.
Iran, however, has signaled a different vision. An IRGC-linked news outlet portrayed last-minute revisions to the agreement — including language governing the strait’s future administration and the temporary toll provision — as negotiating victories for Tehran.
The White House could not immediately be reached for comment ahead of Tuesday’s negotiations.
America’s Gulf partners have made equally clear they are not interested in rewriting the status quo.
“The management of the strait was working fine before the conflict,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said. “Why should we now, as a result of a conflict, accept some novel arrangement?”
The disagreement reflects competing visions of what Iran’s role in the strait looks like once the fighting ends.
Former Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker said the negotiations reflect Iran’s effort to emerge from the conflict with “a new status quo in the Persian Gulf.”
But preserving leverage over the Strait is about more than commercial shipping.
“Iran is trying to basically step into that void,” said Clionadh Raleigh, executive director of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project.
Raleigh argued the conflict has left Gulf governments questioning whether “the U.S. is a partner that’s unreliable,” creating an opportunity for Tehran to argue that Gulf security should increasingly be managed by countries in the region rather than by Washington.
Those doubts are already reshaping regional strategy.
“They’re seeking to really develop their own defense posture,” Raleigh said. “And they’re also seeking alternative means for them to continue trade.”
Those efforts have been underway for years, but the latest conflict has accelerated them.
Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in the East-West Pipeline linking Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates has expanded export capacity through Fujairah, allowing crude exports to bypass Hormuz altogether.
Every barrel that leaves the Gulf without transiting the strait — and every ship that safely uses the southern corridor — chips away at the leverage Iran has historically derived from one of the world’s most important maritime choke points.
If those alternatives continue to expand, Iran’s ability to wield the strait as a strategic pressure point could gradually diminish even if Hormuz itself remains one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.